#2 : April 3, 2001
The recent "accident" between
Chinese fighter aircraft and the Navy P3 Long Range Naval Patrol
aircraft is full of international intrigue and purpose. There is no
question that the US has been monitoring the Chinese build-up of short
and medium range missiles along the Chinese southern coast for some
time. China has a long standing conflict with Taiwan. Many analysts
believe a future military conflict is brewing. China has made several
threatening gestures and statements directed at Taiwan. So, this reason
alone is sufficient to understand why China would risk an international
incident in harassing the P3 as it monitors Chinese military activities.
China probably didn’t bargain for losing a fighter aircraft in the
"bump and run." But since it happened, that too can be used as
a reason for China to complain and lay blame on the US. But is the only
reason for the incident? Is this really what the incident is about?
Consider another reason for a moment.
China is a major provider to Iraq for
military equipment and support. In the recent air raids into Baghdad,
the allies were attempting to destroy the new Iraqi missile command and
control system. This was a fiber-optic system designed and built by the
Chinese. Many of the Iraq armored vehicles are Chinese made. Iraq is on
its own campaign of conflict, teaming with Syria and the Palestinians,
for a future war into Israel. However, Iraq knows that the US can do
major damage to Iraq in its attack upon Israel. Therefore, Iraq wants US
assets and attention moved elsewhere during its attack on Israel. This
is where the Chinese come in.
The Chinese incident will probably
result in additional military units being moved into the South China
Sea. Those assets (probably a carrier battle group) will most likely be
units from the Indian Ocean. China is probably trying to soak off US
resources to help Iraq in addition to its own personal interest in
Closer to the Middle East... Egypt
knows that Arafat, the Syrians, and Iraq are planning a regional war.
Egypt is trying to get the US to engage the peace process again by
appeasing Arafat and delaying the war. But Bush is not playing the same
game Clinton played. He knows that war is clearly planned by Arafat.
Bush also knows that Israel is preparing to crush the Palestinians along
with Syria and Iraq.
The only question for Bush is how does
he handle this diversion on China’s part and still keep his eye on the
real target – Jerusalem. Watch for China to drag this thing out for
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